KCChiefs
1-0
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
13 mph
10
OAKRaiders
1-0
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
28
0
0
28
Raiders
10
0
0
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
307
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
436
178
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.34
Rushing Yards
31
129
Rush Attempts
22
19
Yards / Rush
1.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.60
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
57%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.26
-11.78
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-6.31
-3.71
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
114
52
Penalty EPA
-7.44
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-159
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
21
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U