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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-0
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
13 mph
10
OAKRaiders
1-0
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
28
0
0
28
Raiders
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

KC logo
-7

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
467
307
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.16
Passing Yards
436
178
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.34
Rushing Yards
31
129
Rush Attempts
22
19
Yards / Rush
1.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.60
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
57%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.26
-11.78
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-6.31
-3.71
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
114
52
Penalty EPA
-7.44
-5.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
11/11
1.7
60
11/19
10.2
96
12/02
9.7
95
12/09
3.4
71
12/13
3.4
72
12/23
5.8
84
12/30
1.0
53
01/12
0.2
48
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
-8.1
8
11/11
-2.9
28
11/18
-1.8
34
11/25
-4.7
19
12/02
5.9
84
12/09
3.4
71
12/16
-4.7
19
12/24
-1.8
34
12/30
-6.8
10
09/09
5.1
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
21
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
12
W
L
U
11/19
-3
L
P
O
12/02
7
W
L
O
12/09
3
W
L
O
12/13
-1
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
32
W
W
U
01/12
18
W
W
U
01/20
-6
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-31
L
L
U
11/11
-14
L
L
U
11/18
2
W
W
O
11/25
-17
L
L
O
12/02
-7
L
W
O
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
P
12/24
13
W
W
U
12/30
-32
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
U