KCChiefs
2-3
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
6 mph
0
OAKRaiders
4-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
0
7
1
16
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
322
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.48
Passing Yards
--
167
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.84
Rushing Yards
139
155
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
6
Interceptions
2
6
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.89
-29.96
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.55
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
98
120
Penalty EPA
+5.02
-14.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-91.8
Home QB Adjustment
-84.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
23.2
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
K. Boller
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-84.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U