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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
2-3
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
6 mph
0
OAKRaiders
4-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
0
7
1
16
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

KC logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
300
322
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.48
Passing Yards
--
167
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.84
Rushing Yards
139
155
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
6
Interceptions
2
6
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.89
-29.96
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.55
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
98
120
Penalty EPA
+5.02
-14.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-91.8
Home QB Adjustment
-84.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
23.0
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
12/05
-2.2
34
12/19
-4.3
21
12/26
9.2
96
01/02
-15.3
0
01/09
-12.5
1
09/11
-4.0
25
09/18
-8.7
4
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
10/09
6.6
89
K. Boller headshot

K. Boller

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-84.7
Value
Ptile
10/21
0.6
54
11/18
-7.0
8
11/25
-0.8
43
12/03
3.7
76
12/09
-5.3
17
12/16
-4.9
19
10/04
-9.5
3
10/11
-2.3
36
11/29
-3.0
31
12/06
-8.8
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27

EPA

EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
31
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
23
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-31
L
L
U
12/19
14
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
-21
L
L
U
01/09
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-34
L
L
O
09/18
-45
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
5
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
W
O
09/25
10
W
W
O
10/02
-12
L
L
U
10/09
5
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
U