KCChiefs
5-4
41
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
014
OAKRaiders
5-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
10
10
14
41
Raiders
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
516
299
Total Plays
76
51
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
249
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-0.18
Rushing Yards
94
50
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
15
Passing 1st downs
23
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-2.69
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.60
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
34
68
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-7.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U