KCChiefs
8-1
35
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
031
OAKRaiders
6-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
7
14
35
Raiders
14
3
0
14
31
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
460
364
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.30
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
35/46(76%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.52
Rushing Yards
108
89
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
36
25
Passing 1st downs
22
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
56%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
80%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.53
-1.84
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
89
72
Penalty EPA
-9.30
-11.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-186
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,688
Home Field
+3.0
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+24.6
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U