KCChiefs
13-3
31
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
013
OAKRaiders
6-10
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
17
0
7
31
Raiders
3
0
3
7
13
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
279
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
6.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.11
Passing Yards
181
180
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.26
Rushing Yards
168
99
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.73
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-21
-39
Sack EPA
-4.95
-11.51
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
43
47
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-186
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-84.2
Home QB Adjustment
-65.4
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
J. Stidham
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-65.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U