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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-10
12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
14
OAKRaiders
2-14
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
3
6
12
Raiders
0
6
0
6
12

Spread

OAK logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
168
204
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
2.7
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.47
Passing Yards
84
86
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
11/26(42%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.73
-0.64
Rushing Yards
84
118
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
10
12
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.37
-10.86
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-62
-19
Sack EPA
-15.89
-4.62
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-3.96
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,295
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+107.2
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-116.7
Market Regression
+43.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Oladokun headshot

C. Oladokun

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-116.7
Value
Ptile
12/25
-2.0
37
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Value
Ptile
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47
11/12
-2.9
29
11/19
-5.3
18
11/26
1.1
56
12/03
-4.7
21
12/29
1.3
58
12/14
-8.2
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
6
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8

EPA

EPA / Play
31
12
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
11
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
26
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-3
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
U
12/25
-7
L
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-17
L
L
O
12/07
-7
L
W
O
12/14
-31
L
L
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
-24
L
L
O