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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-10
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
OAKRaiders
2-14
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,295
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+107.2
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-116.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Oladokun headshot

C. Oladokun

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-116.7
Value
Ptile
12/25
-2.0
36
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Value
Ptile
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47
11/12
-2.9
29
11/19
-5.3
18
11/26
1.1
56
12/03
-4.7
21
12/29
1.2
58
12/14
-8.3
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
5
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
32
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
25
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-3
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
U
12/25
-7
L
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-17
L
L
O
12/07
-7
L
W
O
12/14
-31
L
L
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
-24
L
L
O