nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ rams week 11, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
9-1
51
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
0
54
LARRams
9-1
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
16
7
15
45
Rams
13
4
11
14
42

Spread

KC logo
LAR logo
3
P

Total

OVER
63.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
546
455
Total Plays
69
75
Yards / Play
7.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
448
379
Comp/Att
33/46(72%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.19
Rushing Yards
98
76
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
27
29
Passing 1st downs
21
21
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-25.42
-9.20
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-30
-34
Sack EPA
-15.90
-13.53
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
135
60
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+79.2
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.9
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+29.0
Away QB Adjustment
+31.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.5
Value
Ptile
09/09
6.6
88
09/16
14.8
99
09/23
4.4
76
10/01
5.1
80
10/07
0.5
50
10/14
6.2
86
10/21
9.8
95
10/28
6.1
85
11/04
7.1
90
11/11
1.7
60
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70
09/23
9.7
95
09/27
16.2
99
10/07
2.1
63
10/14
-9.0
6
10/21
2.0
61
10/28
-0.5
43
11/04
8.6
93
11/11
5.8
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Chiefs logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
1
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Rams logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27

EPA

EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
19
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
10
W
W
O
09/16
5
W
W
O
09/23
11
W
W
O
10/01
4
W
W
U
10/07
16
W
W
U
10/14
-3
L
W
O
10/21
35
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
L
P
11/04
16
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U
09/23
12
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/21
29
W
W
U
10/28
2
W
L
U
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
5
W
L
O