KCChiefs
9-1
51
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
054
LARRams
9-1
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
16
7
15
45
Rams
13
4
11
14
42
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
63.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
546
455
Total Plays
69
75
Yards / Play
7.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
448
379
Comp/Att
33/46(72%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.19
Rushing Yards
98
76
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
29
Passing 1st downs
21
21
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-25.42
-9.20
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-30
-34
Sack EPA
-15.90
-13.53
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
135
60
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+29.0
Away QB Adjustment
+31.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+31.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Rams
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U