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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ ravens week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
8-5
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
41°F
5 mph
14
BALRavens
4-9
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
41°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
10
0
4
22
Ravens
7
7
0
0
14

Spread

KC logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
277
366
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.32
Passing Yards
164
273
Comp/Att
21/25(84%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.19
Rushing Yards
113
93
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.68
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.25
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-2.63
-2.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
55
63
Penalty EPA
-0.93
-7.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+92.2
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-145.4
Home QB Adjustment
-134.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Value
Ptile
10/04
1.9
64
10/11
-3.4
26
10/18
1.2
59
10/25
-0.0
51
11/01
5.5
84
11/15
0.6
54
11/22
0.5
54
11/29
5.5
85
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
J. Clausen headshot

J. Clausen

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-134.5
Value
Ptile
11/14
-2.3
33
11/28
-5.6
15
12/05
-7.7
7
12/12
-10.6
2
12/19
-0.5
45
12/23
-10.5
3
01/02
-4.3
21
12/21
-1.6
38
09/27
-6.3
9
12/13
-2.1
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
1
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
24
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-15
L
L
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/01
35
W
W
O
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
30
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
3
W
P
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/18
-5
L
L
O
10/26
-8
L
W
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
P
U
11/30
6
W
W
O
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U