KCChiefs
8-5
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
41°F
5 mph
14
BALRavens
4-9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
41°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
10
0
4
22
Ravens
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
366
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.32
Passing Yards
164
273
Comp/Att
21/25(84%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.19
Rushing Yards
113
93
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.68
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.25
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-2.63
-2.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
55
63
Penalty EPA
-0.93
-7.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-178
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+91.1
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-145.4
Home QB Adjustment
-134.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-134.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U