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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ steelers week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-7
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
16 mph
16
PITSteelers
5-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
7
3
0
3
0
13
Steelers
0
10
0
3
3
16

Spread

KC logo
+12.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
290
249
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
148
154
Comp/Att
11/26(42%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.04
Rushing Yards
142
95
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
15%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.76
-4.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-2.70
-1.85
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-7.36
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
10/23
-6.5
12
10/31
-2.4
34
11/06
-4.5
22
11/13
-7.5
7
09/09
-0.4
47
09/16
-1.4
40
09/23
-5.3
16
09/30
-4.6
21
10/07
-5.5
15
11/01
-1.2
41
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
01/01
-1.5
39
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
09/23
13.0
99
10/07
3.0
70
10/11
2.7
67
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
11/04
-2.0
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
2

EPA

EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
12
31
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
12
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
-16
L
L
O
09/16
-18
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
4
W
L
U
01/08
-6
L
L
O
09/09
-12
L
L
O
09/16
17
W
W
U
09/23
-3
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
U
11/04
4
W
W
U