KCChiefs
1-7
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
16 mph
16
PITSteelers
5-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
7
3
0
3
0
13
Steelers
0
10
0
3
3
16
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
249
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
148
154
Comp/Att
11/26(42%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.04
Rushing Yards
142
95
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
15%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.76
-4.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-2.70
-1.85
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-7.36
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
12
31
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U