KCChiefs
8-6
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
1 mph
20
PITSteelers
9-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
0
6
12
Steelers
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
282
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.20
Passing Yards
288
214
Comp/Att
32/46(70%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.34
Rushing Yards
39
68
Rush Attempts
14
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-29
-6
Sack EPA
-8.18
-1.54
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
39
40
Penalty EPA
-3.27
-4.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U