KCChiefs
14-1
29
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
2 mph
10
PITSteelers
10-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
13
0
3
13
29
Steelers
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
364
Total Plays
59
73
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
162
Comp/Att
29/39(74%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.49
Rushing Yards
69
202
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.27
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-9.58
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
90
--
Penalty EPA
-0.07
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+46.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+25.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
28
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
15
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U