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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ steelers week 17, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
14-1
29
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
2 mph
10
PITSteelers
10-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
13
0
3
13
29
Steelers
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

KC logo
-2

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
389
364
Total Plays
59
73
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
162
Comp/Att
29/39(74%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.49
Rushing Yards
69
202
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.27
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-9.58
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
90
--
Penalty EPA
-0.07
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+25.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
10/20
-3.2
27
10/27
2.8
68
11/04
4.3
76
11/10
1.0
56
11/17
-0.5
46
11/24
5.8
83
11/29
-3.7
24
12/08
-0.3
47
12/15
1.5
59
12/21
8.0
93
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.3
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91
12/08
1.1
56
12/15
-2.5
31
12/21
1.6
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
12
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
28
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
15
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
29
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
7
W
L
O
11/04
6
W
L
O
11/10
2
W
L
U
11/17
-9
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
11/21
-5
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
O