KCChiefs
1-0
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
1-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
9
12
Texans
7
6
0
6
19
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
351
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.21
Passing Yards
172
254
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.04
Rushing Yards
119
97
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.75
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.14
-11.85
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-6.05
-4.36
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
77
44
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
N/A
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-6.0
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
23
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U