KCChiefs
4-0
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
10 mph
17
TENTitans
3-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
0
13
26
Titans
0
0
10
7
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
339
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
233
234
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
21/41(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.21
Rushing Yards
120
105
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
8%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.47
-8.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-3.11
-5.12
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
61
35
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-4.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
Titans+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
+11.2
Final Difference
5.4
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U