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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ titans week 5, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
4-0
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
10 mph
17
TENTitans
3-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
0
13
26
Titans
0
0
10
7
17

Spread

KC logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
353
339
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
233
234
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
21/41(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.21
Rushing Yards
120
105
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
8%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.47
-8.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-3.11
-5.12
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
61
35
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-4.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
8.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3
10/18
-3.0
30
10/29
5.9
87
11/11
-3.4
28
09/08
2.3
66
09/15
1.5
61
09/19
-3.4
28
09/29
2.2
66
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
10/21
5.5
84
11/04
-0.1
50
11/11
2.6
66
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19

EPA

EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
12
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
9
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
12/30
-35
L
L
P
09/08
26
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
L
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/29
24
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-5
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/17
4
W
W
U
12/23
-48
L
L
O
12/30
18
W
W
O
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O