KCChiefs
3-3
3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
14 mph
27
TENTitans
4-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
3
0
3
Titans
14
13
0
0
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
57.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
369
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.23
Passing Yards
257
266
Comp/Att
31/51(61%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.54
Rushing Yards
77
103
Rush Attempts
13
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.98
-4.76
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-9.53
-1.32
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
77
31
Penalty EPA
-9.05
-3.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
5
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
8
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U