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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ 49ers week 7, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-4
30
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
16 mph
18
SF49ers
2-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
7
10
30
49ers
12
0
0
6
18

Spread

IND logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
295
280
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.26
Passing Yards
147
169
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.48
Rushing Yards
148
111
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
43%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-11.34
-14.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-12
Sack EPA
-6.13
-5.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
122
Penalty EPA
--
-12.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+89.5
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
11/15
-5.4
14
11/22
-6.8
9
11/30
-6.2
10
12/06
-8.9
4
09/12
2.2
69
09/19
0.4
55
09/26
-6.8
11
10/03
2.2
69
10/11
7.3
92
10/17
-2.2
36
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
09/13
-1.1
37
09/20
-0.6
41
10/11
-13.6
1
10/18
7.3
90
10/25
-0.2
45
11/01
-8.8
5
09/12
0.6
57
09/19
3.5
78
09/26
-2.4
35
10/03
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs 49ers Defense
Colts logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6

EPA

EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
2
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
19
13
49ers Offense vs Colts Defense
49ers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12

EPA

EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
15
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
6
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
7
W
L
U
12/27
-4
L
L
O
01/03
14
W
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/12
-12
L
L
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-9
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
O
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-8
L
L
U
12/20
-8
L
L
O
12/26
8
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
8
W
L
O
09/19
6
W
W
U
09/26
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
-7
L
L
U