INDColts
2-4
30
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
16 mph
18
SF49ers
2-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
64°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
7
10
30
49ers
12
0
0
6
18
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
280
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.26
Passing Yards
147
169
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.48
Rushing Yards
148
111
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
43%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-11.34
-14.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-12
Sack EPA
-6.13
-5.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
122
Penalty EPA
--
-12.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+89.5
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
19
13
49ers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
6
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U