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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bengals week 6, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
0-5
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
16 mph
27
CINBengals
3-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
0
10
17
Bengals
7
3
10
1
21

Spread

CIN logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
273
358
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.02
Passing Yards
179
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.35
Rushing Yards
94
94
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.02
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.02
--
Penalties
2
11
Penalty Yards
11
111
Penalty EPA
-2.34
-2.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-59.1
Market Regression
-17.5
Final Difference
123.9
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Painter headshot

C. Painter

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-59.1
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.4
41
10/09
4.3
78
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.3
23
09/18
5.4
84
09/25
-6.9
10
10/02
-1.1
44
10/09
-1.5
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Colts logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Bengals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
19
31
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
2
W
L
O
12/19
10
W
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O
10/09
-4
L
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/02
-6
L
W
U
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/18
-2
L
W
O
09/25
-5
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
10
W
W
O