INDColts
0-5
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
16 mph
27
CINBengals
3-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
0
10
17
Bengals
7
3
10
1
21
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
358
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.02
Passing Yards
179
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.35
Rushing Yards
94
94
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.02
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.02
--
Penalties
2
11
Penalty Yards
11
111
Penalty EPA
-2.34
-2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-59.1
Market Regression
-18.5
Final Difference
122.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-59.1
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
21
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
19
31
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U