INDColts
8-4
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
25°F
7 mph
42
CINBengals
8-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
25°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
14
14
28
Bengals
7
7
14
14
42
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
430
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
6.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.37
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.47
Rushing Yards
63
155
Rush Attempts
12
35
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
24
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U