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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bengals week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
8-4
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
25°F
7 mph
42
CINBengals
8-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
25°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
14
14
28
Bengals
7
7
14
14
42

Spread

CIN logo
-7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
389
430
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
6.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.37
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.47
Rushing Yards
63
155
Rush Attempts
12
35
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.6
61
09/29
1.5
61
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
11/14
3.9
76
11/24
-1.5
43
12/01
-5.8
15
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
-2.0
39
09/29
-4.7
20
10/06
-2.9
33
10/13
4.8
83
10/20
9.5
95
10/27
8.6
93
10/31
-6.9
11
11/10
-8.5
6
11/17
-4.7
20
12/01
-1.6
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Colts logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
6
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Bengals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
24
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
1
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
34
W
W
U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
11/14
3
W
W
O
11/24
-29
L
L
O
12/01
8
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
-11
L
L
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
3
W
L
O
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
40
W
W
O
10/31
-2
L
L
P
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
7
W
W
U