INDColts
3-9
7
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
15 mph
13
BUFBills
6-6
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
0
7
Bills
0
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
298
Total Plays
69
66
Yards / Play
3.3
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.18
Passing Yards
64
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
6/15(40%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.21
Rushing Yards
163
227
Rush Attempts
46
51
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
5
3
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.18
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.05
--
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
10
Penalty EPA
--
-1.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,314
Home Field
+55.5
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-125.8
Home QB Adjustment
-110.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.0
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
N. Peterman
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-110.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
18
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U