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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bills week 14, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
3-9
7
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
15 mph
13
BUFBills
6-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
0
7
Bills
0
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
227
298
Total Plays
69
66
Yards / Play
3.3
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.18
Passing Yards
64
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
6/15(40%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.21
Rushing Yards
163
227
Rush Attempts
46
51
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
5
3
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.18
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.05
--
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
10
Penalty EPA
--
-1.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,313
Home Field
+56.2
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-125.8
Home QB Adjustment
-110.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.0
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
Value
Ptile
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
10/29
-1.0
45
11/05
3.3
76
11/12
-1.5
42
11/26
-9.3
4
12/03
-4.3
23
N. Peterman headshot

N. Peterman

Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-110.8
Value
Ptile
11/19
-14.3
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Colts logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
18
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Bills logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25

EPA

EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
13
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
22
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
10/29
-1
L
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/08
-4
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
P
O
10/29
20
W
W
O
11/02
-13
L
L
O
11/12
-37
L
L
O
11/19
-30
L
L
O
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U