INDColts
14-1
7
TBD
New Era Field
12°F
12 mph
30
BUFBills
5-10
TBD
New Era Field
12°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
0
0
7
Bills
7
17
6
0
30
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
32.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
157
403
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
3.0
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.12
Passing Yards
132
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.23
Rushing Yards
25
248
Rush Attempts
16
42
Yards / Rush
1.6
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.54
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
19
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.61
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-0.45
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-173
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-22.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-22.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
27
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U