INDColts
0-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
024
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
7
0
17
Buccaneers
0
7
10
7
24
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
466
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
6.1
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.08
Passing Yards
256
274
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.26
Rushing Yards
62
192
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.29
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-7.97
-0.35
Penalties
6
14
Penalty Yards
50
106
Penalty EPA
-2.11
-13.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+89.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-80.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-80.8
No recent game data available
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U