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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ buccaneers week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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IND logo
INDColts
0-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
0
24
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
7
0
17
Buccaneers
0
7
10
7
24

Spread

IND logo
+10

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
318
466
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
6.1
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.08
Passing Yards
256
274
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.26
Rushing Yards
62
192
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.29
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-7.97
-0.35
Penalties
6
14
Penalty Yards
50
106
Penalty EPA
-2.11
-13.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+89.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-80.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Painter headshot

C. Painter

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-80.8
No recent game data available
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
0.3
51
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
1.8
59
12/26
9.9
97
01/02
4.7
81
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
1.1
60
09/25
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
30
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
29
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
17
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-22
L
L
P
12/05
-3
L
L
O
12/09
2
W
L
O
12/19
10
W
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
21
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
W
U
12/05
-4
L
L
O
12/12
1
W
P
U
12/19
-3
L
L
P
12/26
23
W
W
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U