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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ buccaneers week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
6-6
35
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
9 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
5-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
11
8
0
29
Buccaneers
14
7
7
10
38

Spread

IND logo
TB logo
3
P

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
311
542
Total Plays
60
78
Yards / Play
5.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
245
467
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
35/49(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.16
Rushing Yards
66
75
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
7
24
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.86
-22.11
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.31
-1.75
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
35
104
Penalty EPA
+3.06
-12.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
-1.7
41
09/22
6.0
86
09/29
0.9
60
10/06
-2.2
37
10/20
7.0
90
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
-4.9
20
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.3
62
09/29
7.9
93
10/06
-5.7
17
10/13
-12.3
2
10/27
-1.6
42
11/03
3.8
78
11/10
-2.3
36
11/17
-3.8
26
11/24
3.4
74
12/01
-2.4
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
2
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
17
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
4
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
L
U
11/17
20
W
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-4
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
13
W
W
O
12/01
17
W
W
U