INDColts
6-6
35
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
9 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
5-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
11
8
0
29
Buccaneers
14
7
7
10
38
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
542
Total Plays
60
78
Yards / Play
5.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
245
467
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
35/49(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.16
Rushing Yards
66
75
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
7
24
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.86
-22.11
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.31
-1.75
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
35
104
Penalty EPA
+3.06
-12.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
17
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
9-1
O/U