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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ cardinals week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
7-3
11
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
40
ARICardinals
6-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
0
8
11
Cardinals
7
14
7
6
34

Spread

ARI logo
-3

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
241
410
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.22
Passing Yards
161
290
Comp/Att
20/40(50%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.50
Rushing Yards
80
120
Rush Attempts
15
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.29
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-24
Sack EPA
-1.62
-4.69
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
89
84
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-7.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+25.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.8
76
09/15
1.9
63
09/22
1.6
61
09/29
1.5
61
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
11/14
3.9
76
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Colts logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
6
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Cardinals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
26
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
24
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
4
W
L
U
09/15
-4
L
L
O
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
34
W
W
U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
11/14
3
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O