INDColts
7-3
11
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
040
ARICardinals
6-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
0
8
11
Cardinals
7
14
7
6
34
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
410
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.22
Passing Yards
161
290
Comp/Att
20/40(50%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.50
Rushing Yards
80
120
Rush Attempts
15
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.29
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-24
Sack EPA
-1.62
-4.69
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
89
84
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-7.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
26
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U