INDColts
9-5
23
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
10 mph
7
KCChiefs
11-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
10
0
23
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.20
Passing Yards
232
132
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.55
Rushing Yards
135
155
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-16.08
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.74
-12.48
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
31
65
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-8.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
1
21
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U