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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ chiefs week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
9-5
23
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
10 mph
7
KCChiefs
11-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
10
0
23
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

IND logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
367
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.20
Passing Yards
232
132
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.55
Rushing Yards
135
155
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-16.08
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.74
-12.48
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
31
65
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-8.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
11/14
3.9
76
11/24
-1.5
43
12/01
-5.8
15
12/08
13.2
99
12/15
0.6
54
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Value
Ptile
10/06
-3.9
25
10/13
-7.0
11
10/20
2.0
64
10/27
0.3
52
11/03
-3.7
27
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
1.6
61
12/15
9.5
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
6
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30

EPA

EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
7
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
1
21
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
6
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
11/14
3
W
W
O
11/24
-29
L
L
O
12/01
8
W
W
U
12/08
-14
L
L
O
12/15
22
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
17
W
W
U
10/20
1
W
L
U
10/27
6
W
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
25
W
W
O