INDColts
10-4
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
042
DALCowboys
10-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Cowboys
14
14
7
7
42
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
377
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
4.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.23
Passing Yards
228
250
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
19/21(90%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
11.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+1.27
Rushing Yards
1
127
Rush Attempts
10
40
Yards / Rush
0.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.68
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
--
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.81
-3.41
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-6.70
-2.00
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-7.71
-10.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
24
12
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U