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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ dolphins week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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IND logo
INDColts
1-0
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
10 mph
23
MIADolphins
0-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
14
27
Dolphins
7
6
0
10
23

Spread

IND logo
-3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
356
403
Total Plays
35
84
Yards / Play
10.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.60
+0.17
Passing Yards
295
164
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
12.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.18
Rushing Yards
61
239
Rush Attempts
11
49
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
14
27
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
3
15
3rd Down Attempts
7
21
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.62
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-1.25
-3.50
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-2.24
-1.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
3.9
77
11/16
6.9
90
11/23
3.8
77
11/30
-4.9
16
12/07
9.6
97
12/14
6.5
89
12/18
13.3
100
12/28
0.6
56
01/03
2.5
69
09/13
3.2
71
J. Pennington headshot

J. Pennington

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
11/09
-2.3
33
11/16
-0.7
47
11/23
5.9
87
11/30
-0.4
49
12/07
2.8
70
12/14
1.0
59
12/21
5.0
84
12/28
4.1
77
01/04
-5.0
15
09/13
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Colts logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17

EPA

EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
27
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Dolphins logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20

EPA

EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
3
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
5
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
4
W
W
P
11/16
6
W
L
P
11/23
3
W
W
P
11/30
4
W
P
P
12/07
32
W
W
P
12/14
10
W
L
P
12/18
7
W
W
P
12/28
23
W
W
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
2
W
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
2
W
L
P
11/16
2
W
L
P
11/23
-20
L
L
P
11/30
4
W
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/14
5
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
09/13
-12
L
L
U