INDColts
1-0
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
10 mph
23
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
14
27
Dolphins
7
6
0
10
23
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
403
Total Plays
35
84
Yards / Play
10.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.60
+0.17
Passing Yards
295
164
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
12.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.18
Rushing Yards
61
239
Rush Attempts
11
49
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
27
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
3
15
3rd Down Attempts
7
21
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.62
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-1.25
-3.50
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-2.24
-1.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
J. Pennington
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
27
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
0-1-9
O/U