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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ dolphins week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
6-8
18
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph
12
MIADolphins
5-9
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
6
7
0
3
16
Dolphins
0
6
3
3
12

Spread

IND logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
268
361
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
168
279
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.04
Rushing Yards
100
82
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.62
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-9
-50
Sack EPA
-1.96
-9.49
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
50
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-4.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+80.6
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-49.3
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-49.3
Value
Ptile
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
10/08
2.3
67
11/22
-1.5
39
11/29
1.2
58
12/06
-7.1
7
12/13
-5.1
15
12/20
-5.0
16
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Value
Ptile
10/18
1.5
62
10/25
6.4
88
10/29
-6.9
7
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
-2.3
34
11/22
-3.8
23
11/29
2.0
65
12/06
-4.5
17
12/14
0.5
54
12/20
-2.5
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Colts logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
32
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Dolphins logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
30
RZ Efficiency
19
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
U
11/29
13
W
W
U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
28
W
W
O
10/25
18
W
W
O
10/29
-29
L
L
U
11/08
-16
L
L
O
11/15
1
W
W
U
11/22
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-18
L
L
O
12/06
2
W
L
U
12/14
-7
L
L
O
12/20
-16
L
L
U