INDColts
6-8
18
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph
12
MIADolphins
5-9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
6
7
0
3
16
Dolphins
0
6
3
3
12
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
361
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
168
279
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.04
Rushing Yards
100
82
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.62
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-9
-50
Sack EPA
-1.96
-9.49
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
50
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-4.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+79.7
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-49.3
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-49.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
30
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U