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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ falcons week 11, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
4-5
24
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
21
ATLFalcons
6-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
7
4
18
Falcons
7
7
7
0
21

Spread

IND logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
276
375
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.17
Passing Yards
202
275
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.08
Rushing Yards
74
100
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.22
-17.50
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-3.78
-1.40
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
42
69
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-9.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+52.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-47.5
Market Regression
-16.7
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
10/08
2.3
67
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
12/28
-8.4
7
09/14
1.0
57
09/20
3.6
76
09/27
5.4
84
10/04
1.5
62
10/11
-6.5
9
10/15
0.4
53
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
8.1
94
11/08
2.3
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Colts logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Falcons logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-31
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/27
11
W
W
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/11
6
W
L
U
10/15
-10
L
L
P
10/25
3
W
L
U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/08
-1
L
L
U