INDColts
4-5
24
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
021
ATLFalcons
6-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
7
4
18
Falcons
7
7
7
0
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
375
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.17
Passing Yards
202
275
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.08
Rushing Yards
74
100
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.22
-17.50
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-3.78
-1.40
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
42
69
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-9.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.7
Away Bye Adj
-48.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+52.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-47.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U