INDColts
7-8
33
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
045
NYGGiants
2-13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
10
7
13
33
Giants
7
14
7
17
45
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
389
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
6.0
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.37
Passing Yards
320
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+1.20
Rushing Yards
126
80
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
54%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.36
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-5.67
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
21
94
Penalty EPA
-2.34
-9.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model71.1%
Spread Pick
Giants+7.5
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,300
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+39.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
-156.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Giants
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U