INDColts
0-2
44
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
5 mph
17
JAXJaguars
0-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
20
0
8
38
Jaguars
0
0
3
14
17
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
529
344
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
7.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.08
Passing Yards
385
239
Comp/Att
33/43(77%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.20
Rushing Yards
144
105
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
22
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
57%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-2.47
-5.34
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
46
15
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-1.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-162
Home nfelo
1,324
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U