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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
1-2
27
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
7 mph
30
JAXJaguars
0-3
JAX logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
21
27
Jaguars
7
10
6
7
30

Spread

JAX logo
+1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
284
331
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
3.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.23
Passing Yards
190
195
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.18
Rushing Yards
94
136
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
53%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-44
-12
Sack EPA
-8.09
-0.97
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
78
145
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-15.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
-5.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-42.5
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
-1.7
38
09/21
-2.6
32
09/27
-1.9
36
10/18
6.1
88
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18
11/08
5.3
84
09/11
10.3
97
09/18
-5.8
12
09/25
0.6
54
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
11/19
-2.6
31
11/29
2.7
71
12/06
8.1
94
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
11
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
W
U
11/29
13
W
W
U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
4
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
6
W
W
U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-3
L
P
O
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U