INDColts
1-2
27
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
7 mph
30
JAXJaguars
0-3
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
21
27
Jaguars
7
10
6
7
30
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
331
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
3.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.23
Passing Yards
190
195
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.18
Rushing Yards
94
136
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
53%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-44
-12
Sack EPA
-8.09
-0.97
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
78
145
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-15.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model56.0%
Spread Pick
Colts-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
-5.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-42.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U