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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
5-3
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
50°F
0
10
JAXJaguars
1-7
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
50°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
14
1
3
21
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

IND logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
359
337
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.23
Passing Yards
221
300
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.28
Rushing Yards
138
37
Rush Attempts
37
12
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
27%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.05
-16.24
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-5.80
-5.97
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
--
115
Penalty EPA
--
-6.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
-45.3
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.8
13
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
4.5
79
10/07
3.1
70
10/14
-7.6
8
10/21
-0.0
50
10/28
1.5
60
11/04
9.2
95
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
-5.6
16
01/01
-6.4
12
09/09
1.2
58
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
-2.1
35
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
10/21
-2.0
36
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
11
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
25
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
3
W
W
U
01/01
-6
L
L
U
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
-5
L
L
U
10/07
3
W
W
O
10/14
-26
L
L
O
10/21
4
W
W
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/04
3
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-6
L
W
O
01/01
6
W
W
U
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-9
L
W
U
11/04
-17
L
L
O