INDColts
5-3
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
50°F
010
JAXJaguars
1-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
50°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
14
1
3
21
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
337
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.23
Passing Yards
221
300
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.28
Rushing Yards
138
37
Rush Attempts
37
12
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
27%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.05
-16.24
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-5.80
-5.97
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
--
115
Penalty EPA
--
-6.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
-45.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U