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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
8-4
19
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
7 mph
36
JAXJaguars
8-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
3
6
19
Jaguars
14
14
0
6
34

Spread

JAX logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
285
350
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.11
Passing Yards
196
--
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.35
Rushing Yards
89
103
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
55%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.71
-4.75
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.97
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-8.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
09/21
3.9
77
09/28
-1.9
38
10/05
2.8
71
10/12
3.4
75
10/19
4.7
82
10/26
3.2
74
11/02
-4.7
19
11/09
-2.8
31
11/23
2.4
68
11/30
1.6
63
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.6
56
10/06
5.0
85
10/12
-2.6
33
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.9
58
11/23
-2.8
30
11/30
0.2
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
8
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
2
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
8
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
21
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
34
W
W
U
10/12
4
W
L
O
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
-4
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/30
22
W
W
U