INDColts
7-4
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
033
DETLions
4-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
7
14
35
Lions
10
13
7
3
33
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
459
451
Total Plays
74
75
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.01
Passing Yards
372
--
Comp/Att
24/54(44%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.01
Rushing Yards
87
138
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.57
-3.96
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.47
--
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
36
61
Penalty EPA
-2.89
+0.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+50.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
11
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
21
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U