INDColts
0-1
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
85°F
7 mph
16
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
85°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
7
10
Packers
10
0
3
3
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
383
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.00
Passing Yards
198
--
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
12/14(86%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.64
Rushing Yards
140
261
Rush Attempts
18
53
Yards / Rush
7.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
22%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.87
-6.59
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.57
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-3.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Packers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
-8.4
Net QB Adjustment
-124.9
Home QB Adjustment
-118.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
+14.6
Final Difference
-27.6
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
M. Willis
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-118.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U