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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ packers week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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IND logo
INDColts
0-1
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
85°F
7 mph
16
GBPackers
0-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
85°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
7
10
Packers
10
0
3
3
16

Spread

GB logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
338
383
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.00
Passing Yards
198
--
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
12/14(86%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.64
Rushing Yards
140
261
Rush Attempts
18
53
Yards / Rush
7.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
22%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.87
-6.59
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.57
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-3.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+54.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-125.0
Home QB Adjustment
-118.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+15.0
Final Difference
-28.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.8
45
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
M. Willis headshot

M. Willis

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-118.7
Value
Ptile
10/30
-9.8
2
11/06
-9.5
3
12/24
-7.1
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Colts logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
17
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Packers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23

EPA

EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
8
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
10
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O
01/06
-4
L
L
U
09/08
-2
L
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
8
W
W
O
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O