INDColts
1-3
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
6 mph
38
NEPatriots
2-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
7
14
24
Patriots
7
17
0
14
38
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
438
Total Plays
81
67
Yards / Play
5.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.16
Passing Yards
355
--
Comp/Att
38/59(64%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.22
Rushing Yards
84
97
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
20
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.54
-8.74
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.24
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+34.5
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
257.2
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
18
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
7
24
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U