INDColts
6-3
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
37°F
6 mph
31
NEPatriots
7-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
37°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
14
0
14
28
Patriots
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
346
Total Plays
72
60
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.33
Passing Yards
--
178
Comp/Att
38/52(73%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.46
Rushing Yards
71
168
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
79%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
11
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.27
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.31
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-3.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
7
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U