INDColts
0-11
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph
31
NEPatriots
8-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
21
24
Patriots
3
14
14
0
31
Spread
+20.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
362
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.28
Passing Yards
338
289
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.41
Rushing Yards
99
73
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
21
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
67%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.16
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.53
-1.85
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
29
--
Penalty EPA
-4.02
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-21.0
Current
-20.5
Model
-20.5
Win Probability
Market94.2%
Model94.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+460
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,351
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.2
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
484.2
Model Spread
-20.5
Quarterbacks
D. Orlovsky
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
11
31
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U