nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ patriots week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
0-11
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph
31
NEPatriots
8-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
21
24
Patriots
3
14
14
0
31

Spread

IND logo
+20.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
437
362
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.28
Passing Yards
338
289
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.41
Rushing Yards
99
73
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
21
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
67%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.16
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.53
-1.85
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
29
--
Penalty EPA
-4.02
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-21.0
Current
-20.5
Model
-20.5

Win Probability

Market94.2%
Model94.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+460
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,351
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.2
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
484.2
Model Spread
-20.5

Quarterbacks

D. Orlovsky headshot

D. Orlovsky

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
Value
Ptile
10/12
-6.1
10
10/19
-0.6
48
10/26
3.1
72
11/02
0.4
54
12/14
4.6
82
12/21
-8.5
5
12/28
-1.8
38
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Value
Ptile
09/18
12.5
98
09/25
5.3
83
10/02
1.6
63
10/09
2.4
68
10/16
0.6
57
10/30
2.2
66
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
10.7
97
11/21
0.6
56
11/27
11.5
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Colts logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
30
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Patriots logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
4
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
11
31
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O
10/09
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-10
L
L
O
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
O
10/02
12
W
W
U
10/09
9
W
W
O
10/16
4
W
L
U
10/30
-8
L
L
U
11/06
-4
L
L
U
11/13
21
W
W
O
11/21
31
W
W
U
11/27
18
W
W
O