INDColts
13-4
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
25°F
7 mph
20
NEPatriots
14-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
25°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
0
3
Patriots
0
6
7
7
20
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
325
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
230
115
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.02
Rushing Yards
46
210
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-29
Sack EPA
-1.52
-4.86
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
44
35
Penalty EPA
-4.16
-3.35
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
9
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U