INDColts
12-5
22
TBD
Gillette Stadium
57°F
18 mph
43
NEPatriots
12-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
57°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
10
0
20
Patriots
14
7
8
14
43
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
421
Total Plays
65
73
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.23
Passing Yards
317
185
Comp/Att
20/41(49%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.26
Rushing Yards
69
236
Rush Attempts
21
47
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.82
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-13
Sack EPA
-3.77
-3.18
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
42
35
Penalty EPA
-3.99
-1.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-41.3
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+31.7
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
6
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
5
21
Fumbles / Game
16
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U