INDColts
8-4
44
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
027
OAKRaiders
7-5
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
10
7
11
38
Raiders
7
7
6
7
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
424
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
7.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.02
Rushing Yards
212
79
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
73%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
40%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-20.10
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-8.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U