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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ raiders week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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IND logo
INDColts
8-4
44
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
27
OAKRaiders
7-5
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
10
7
11
38
Raiders
7
7
6
7
27

Spread

IND logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
456
424
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
7.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.02
Rushing Yards
212
79
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
73%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
40%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-20.10
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-8.20
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
09/27
2.3
62
10/04
-1.6
31
10/11
-6.1
11
10/18
5.6
81
11/01
2.4
62
11/08
-1.8
30
11/12
3.4
69
11/22
3.9
73
11/29
-1.8
30
12/06
1.6
55
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
09/27
5.3
79
10/04
7.1
89
10/11
6.0
83
10/25
2.1
59
11/01
-2.5
27
11/08
-0.6
42
11/15
-2.1
28
11/22
5.8
82
11/29
-8.7
5
12/06
4.0
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Colts logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23

EPA

EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Raiders logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2

EPA

EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
12
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
23
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
29
W
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
L
O
11/01
20
W
W
O
11/08
-14
L
L
U
11/12
17
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-19
L
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-16
L
L
O
10/04
-7
L
L
P
10/11
8
W
W
O
10/25
-25
L
L
O
11/01
10
W
W
U
11/08
5
W
W
O
11/15
25
W
W
U
11/22
-4
L
W
O
11/29
-37
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
L
O