INDColts
7-7
25
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
9 mph
33
OAKRaiders
11-3
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
7
11
25
Raiders
0
19
14
0
33
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
463
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
7.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
253
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.32
Rushing Yards
102
210
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
27
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.43
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.44
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
22
97
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-10.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+87.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
17
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
13
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U