INDColts
5-0
42
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
06
LARRams
0-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
7
1
14
36
Rams
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
272
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
117
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.73
Rushing Yards
156
155
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
67%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.74
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-4.06
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
51
73
Penalty EPA
+5.25
-7.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.6%
Spread Pick
Colts-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-378
Home nfelo
1,307
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
-0.6
Final Difference
-340.1
Model Spread
+14.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
21
31
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
29
15
Fumbles / Game
19
22
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
3-3-4
O/U