nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ rams week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
5-0
42
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
6
LARRams
0-6
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
7
1
14
36
Rams
3
0
3
0
6

Spread

IND logo
-14

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
391
272
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
117
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.73
Rushing Yards
156
155
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
67%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.74
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-4.06
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
51
73
Penalty EPA
+5.25
-7.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model87.6%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-379
Home nfelo
1,306
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
-0.5
Final Difference
-340.1
Model Spread
+14.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
Value
Ptile
12/07
9.6
97
12/14
6.5
89
12/18
13.3
100
12/28
0.6
56
01/03
2.5
69
09/13
3.2
71
09/21
5.7
85
09/27
10.4
97
10/04
8.4
93
10/11
10.2
96
M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
11/23
-5.4
13
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
09/20
-1.3
42
09/27
-4.4
22
10/18
-1.3
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Colts logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
27

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
21
31
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Rams logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
30
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
29
15
Fumbles / Game
19
22
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
31
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
32
W
W
P
12/14
10
W
L
P
12/18
7
W
W
P
12/28
23
W
W
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
2
W
L
U
09/21
4
W
W
O
09/27
21
W
W
U
10/04
17
W
W
O
10/11
22
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-24
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O