INDColts
1-1
22
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
3 mph
19
BALRavens
2-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
10
3
6
3
22
Ravens
7
0
7
3
0
17
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
364
Total Plays
84
72
Yards / Play
3.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
188
178
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.40
Rushing Yards
139
186
Rush Attempts
35
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
22
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.88
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-39
-24
Sack EPA
-7.67
-9.13
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-4.32
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+227
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
193.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
21
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
6
10
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U