INDColts
0-12
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
2 mph
24
BALRavens
9-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
7
10
Ravens
10
7
7
0
24
Spread
+16
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
167
358
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
2.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
117
212
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.29
Rushing Yards
50
146
Rush Attempts
16
37
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
14%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.27
-8.47
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-15
Sack EPA
-5.52
-3.76
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
40
Penalty EPA
-1.64
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+349
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
+25.1
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
D. Orlovsky
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
30
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U