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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ ravens week 14, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
0-12
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
2 mph
24
BALRavens
9-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
7
10
Ravens
10
7
7
0
24

Spread

IND logo
+16

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
167
358
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
2.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
117
212
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.29
Rushing Yards
50
146
Rush Attempts
16
37
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
14%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.27
-8.47
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-15
Sack EPA
-5.52
-3.76
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
40
Penalty EPA
-1.64
-2.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+349
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
+25.1
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0

Quarterbacks

D. Orlovsky headshot

D. Orlovsky

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
10/12
-6.1
10
10/19
-0.6
48
10/26
3.1
72
11/02
0.4
54
12/14
4.6
82
12/21
-8.5
5
12/28
-1.8
38
12/04
6.4
87
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
7.8
93
10/02
-8.6
4
10/16
0.9
59
10/24
-6.3
13
10/30
-0.9
45
11/06
1.7
64
11/13
-1.3
42
11/20
2.4
68
11/24
0.9
59
12/04
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Colts logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
30
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Ravens logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
18
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
17
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O
10/09
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-10
L
L
O
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
30
W
W
O
10/02
17
W
W
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/24
-5
L
L
U
10/30
3
W
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
7
W
P
O
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/04
14
W
W
U