INDColts
0-6
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
062
NOSaints
4-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
0
0
7
Saints
21
13
14
8
56
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
557
Total Plays
46
75
Yards / Play
5.5
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
+0.48
Passing Yards
97
321
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
31/35(89%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.60
Rushing Yards
155
236
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
6.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
36
Passing 1st downs
5
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
16
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
100%
88%
Red Zone Conversions
1
7
Red Zone Attempts
1
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.86
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.91
-2.03
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-11.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+334
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+64.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-51.5
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-51.5
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U