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  1. nfelo...
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  3. colts @ saints week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
0-6
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
62
NOSaints
4-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
0
0
7
Saints
21
13
14
8
56

Spread

NO logo
-13.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
252
557
Total Plays
46
75
Yards / Play
5.5
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
+0.48
Passing Yards
97
321
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
31/35(89%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.60
Rushing Yards
155
236
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
6.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
11
36
Passing 1st downs
5
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
16
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
100%
88%
Red Zone Conversions
1
7
Red Zone Attempts
1
8
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.86
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.91
-2.03
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-11.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+334
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+64.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-51.5
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

C. Painter headshot

C. Painter

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-51.5
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.4
41
10/09
4.3
78
10/16
0.6
56
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
12/19
2.6
66
12/27
1.9
61
01/02
-3.5
26
01/08
8.7
95
09/08
9.7
96
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
10/16
3.0
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Colts logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
30
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Saints logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
5
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
6
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
10
W
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O
10/09
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-10
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-6
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/02
-10
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
O
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-6
L
L
U