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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ steelers week 9, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
7-1
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
2 mph
27
PITSteelers
4-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
0
13
20
Steelers
0
17
0
10
27

Spread

PIT logo
+3

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
368
225
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.0
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.06
Passing Yards
313
187
Comp/Att
31/50(62%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.11
Rushing Yards
55
38
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-26.83
+3.72
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-16
Sack EPA
-15.33
-3.93
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
53
46
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-5.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+42.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
Value
Ptile
11/03
6.1
85
11/10
-4.8
17
09/07
8.5
95
09/14
5.6
87
09/21
3.9
77
09/28
-1.9
38
10/05
2.8
71
10/12
3.4
75
10/19
4.7
82
10/26
3.2
74
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
12/22
3.1
70
12/29
-10.1
2
01/05
2.7
67
09/07
4.0
77
09/14
-7.1
8
09/21
-1.1
41
09/28
1.1
59
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.0
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7

EPA

EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
11
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
25
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
8
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
18
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-12
L
L
O
01/05
3
W
L
O
09/07
25
W
W
U
09/14
1
W
W
O
09/21
21
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
34
W
W
U
10/12
4
W
L
O
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-19
L
L
U
01/04
-2
L
W
U
01/11
-14
L
L
U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O