INDColts
7-1
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
2 mph
27
PITSteelers
4-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
0
13
20
Steelers
0
17
0
10
27
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
225
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.0
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.06
Passing Yards
313
187
Comp/Att
31/50(62%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.11
Rushing Yards
55
38
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-26.83
+3.72
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-16
Sack EPA
-15.33
-3.93
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
53
46
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-5.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
3
6
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
9
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U