INDColts
0-1
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
0-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
14
3
0
31
Texans
7
3
0
10
20
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
389
Total Plays
56
79
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
337
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.16
Rushing Yards
126
52
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.06
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-47
Sack EPA
--
-12.98
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-6.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+15.9
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-22.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
23
15
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
27
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U