INDColts
6-6
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
00
HOUTexans
2-9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
7
10
31
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
141
Total Plays
71
50
Yards / Play
5.5
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.69
Passing Yards
151
57
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
2.1
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-1.02
Rushing Yards
238
84
Rush Attempts
48
19
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
9
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
18
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.12
-10.90
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-37
Sack EPA
-2.24
-6.00
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-229
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+14.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-54.5
Home QB Adjustment
-50.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-50.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
19
20
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U