INDColts
9-4
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
029
HOUTexans
11-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
10
7
0
17
Texans
10
4
3
6
23
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
417
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
4.8
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
148
239
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.29
Rushing Yards
124
178
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
13%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.47
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-38
-22
Sack EPA
-5.88
-4.45
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
79
69
Penalty EPA
-9.62
-9.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
9
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U