INDColts
0-2
35
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
3 mph
33
TENTitans
1-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
1
0
21
29
Titans
0
10
17
6
33
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
433
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.04
Passing Yards
245
345
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.01
Rushing Yards
133
88
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.47
-14.22
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-4.78
-5.00
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
71
55
Penalty EPA
-9.19
-7.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
25
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U